Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
